What do Kim Jong Un and Putin get from one another?

Even an extended anticipate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in Pyongyang within the early hours of Wednesday morning was not sufficient to dampen Kim Jong Un’s enthusiasm for his “comrade.”

Ready on the runway as Putin disembarked his airplane shortly earlier than 3a.m. native time, hours delayed, North Korea’s chief Kim Jong Un beamed as he greeted his Russian counterpart with a shake of palms and an embrace. State-controlled North Korean information company KCNA stated Kim “could not contain his joy” at what it described as a “touching reunion.”

As a big motorcade accompanied the leaders into the capital, whose streets had been draped with Russian flags and portraits of Putin, Kim praised the “historic” event — Putin’s first go to to North Korea in 24 years and a now-rarer journey overseas for the president — and the “invincibility and solidity” of the Russia-North Korean relationship.

After a lavish welcoming ceremony on Wednesday morning, which noticed tens of hundreds of North Koreans line the streets, cheering and singing in honor of Putin’s go to, the Russian chief thanked North Korea for its “consistent and wavering support for Russian policy, including in the Ukrainian direction.”

Putin additionally signalled that the states may signal a “comprehensive strategic partnership” in the course of the journey, signalling that this is not only a pleasant state go to to cement diplomatic relations, however one to develop mutually-beneficial strategic transactions — the quid professional quo — between the international locations.

On the face of it, North Korea seems to be the supplicant in its relationship with Russia, however Pyongyang holds a trump card in relation to Moscow, for now not less than: it may possibly present Moscow with tens of millions of artillery rounds and short-range ballistic missiles to be used towards Ukraine.

Western officers accuse North Korea of circumventing worldwide sanctions to switch munitions and missiles to Russia, though Pyongyang has denied any such arms handover has taken place. In return, Russia is probably going offering North Korea with meals, gas and army expertise for its satellites and submarines, analysts say.

“North Korea has certainly seen a wonderful opportunity for itself in Russia’s isolation from the world,” Rodger Baker, govt director at Stratfor Centre for Utilized Geopolitics, advised CNBC on Wednesday.

“North Korea has long been heavily, heavily dependent on China and even if Russia can pick up 5-10% of North Korean trade that’s a big benefit for the North Koreans. The Russians are [also] talking about ways for both countries to bypass Western sanctions and financial restrictions so that potentially gives North Korea to new flows of economic activity, not only with Russia but potentially internationally,” he stated.

For Kim, the quid-pro-quo precedence will probably be requests for brand new superior army expertise transfers, in keeping with the Teneo consultancy’s Vice President James Brady and Senior Advisor Victor Cha.

“It is unclear how much Putin will be willing to give, but Kim’s wishlist includes technologies related to advanced telemetry, nuclear-powered submarines, military satellites, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russian technology likely contributed to Pyongyang’s first successful military spy satellite launch in November 2023 — just two months after the last Putin-Kim summit,” they stated in a word on Tuesday.

Kim can also attempt to use a “high watermark” in ties to hunt a brand new bilateral safety partnership settlement just like a mutual protection treaty signed by North Korea and the USSR in 1961, which remained efficient till round 1990.

It is not shocking that Kim is proud to indicate his personal individuals and the world that he has a robust pal in Putin. Remoted on the worldwide geopolitical stage and closely sanctioned for its nuclear weapons program and missile testing, North Korea is broadly seen as a “pariah” and “rogue” state by the West.

Whereas the streets of Pyongyang glistened for Putin’s arrival, the bitter actuality in North Korea is that abject poverty and meals and gas shortages are commonplace for almost all of the inhabitants residing underneath the totalitarian rule of the Kim dynasty.

“In addition to the practical outcomes, the visit also gives a profile boost to Kim, who gets to play the role of statesman to both domestic and international audiences,” Brady and Cha stated.

Whereas North Korea and Russia may extol the depth and power of their relationship for now, the truth that Putin hasn’t visited the nation within the final 24 years speaks volumes.

Since invading Ukraine in 2022, nonetheless, Russia’s standing and priorities have modified. Its isolation from the West has develop into important whereas it has accelerated its pivot towards the East, because it seems for allies and prospects for its oil and commodities.

In the meantime at dwelling, Russia’s military-industrial complicated has been positioned on a struggle footing though analysts say it nonetheless faces a shortfall in what it may possibly produce month-to-month and on what it is expending on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Putin wants Kim’s weapons to make up for a month-to-month munitions shortfall of fifty,000 rounds, even when Russia is producing ammunition at full capability within the pursuit of victory in Ukraine, the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research famous Monday.

As such, North Korea presents Russia one other supply of army {hardware}. Though either side deny arms transfers have taken place, U.S. officers have claimed Pyongyang has equipped Russia with dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of munitions for its struggle in Ukraine.

“The nature of the visit makes it unlikely that all outcomes will be detailed publicly, but the goals of the two sides are clear. For Putin, the key aim is to secure an ongoing supply of arms and munitions to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Teneo’s Brady and Cha stated.

“There could be a co-production agreement for several types of ammunition as well as an order for more ballistic missiles. This pressing need for military supplies has transformed the dynamic in the bilateral relationship in the last two years, making Pyongyang a much more valuable partner for Moscow.”