Citi analysts are forecasting a better-than-expected outlook for the worldwide reminiscence market in 2025, regardless of considerations about potential oversupply.
In a analysis observe to purchasers this week, the funding financial institution Citi projected that reminiscence common promoting costs (ASP) will stay largely secure, supported by developments in semi-customization and powerful demand for AI reminiscence.
Citi anticipates a sturdy restoration for NAND, with ASP anticipated to rise by 30% yr over yr in 2025. In distinction, DRAM ASP is projected to extend at a extra modest price of 14% yr over yr.
The availability and demand dynamics are additionally anticipated to favor a extra balanced market.
Within the DRAM sector, Citi forecasts provide development of 16.6% versus demand development of 17.0%, with a major deal with Excessive Bandwidth Reminiscence (HBM).
They clarify that the launch of HBM4 within the second half of 2025 and a shift in capex in the direction of HBM manufacturing will assist stabilize the market, decreasing volatility.
Whereas a HBM undersupply is anticipated in 2024, Citi predicts that the supply-demand ratio will enhance to -1% in 2025.
NAND provide is projected to develop by 12.2% in 2025, whereas demand is anticipated to extend by 17.1%, pushed by a 32.1% development in enterprise solid-state drive (eSSD) demand.
Citi states that this dynamic is prone to lead to a NAND provide tightness, with a supply-demand ratio of -4.2%.
The financial institution additionally notes that reminiscence makers will prioritize DRAM capex, which is anticipated to rise by 45% year-over-year in 2025, in comparison with an 18% improve in NAND capex.
Citi reiterated its Purchase scores on SK Hynix and Western Digital (NASDAQ:), anticipating these main reminiscence makers to learn from the favorable market situations in 2025.
