From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT as we speak:
So low likelihood…then again, it is a bunch of non-American residents betting on a US financial occasion. For comparability, Polymarket (which can not function within the US) signifies 52-46 Trump/Harris, whereas PredictIt (which might function within the US) charges 52-52. Polymarket has constantly predicted a better chance of Trump profitable (vs. Harris) than PredicIt.
I have to confess some uncertainty in regards to the betting, since end result is to be decided by 12/31/2024, however we gained’t have This autumn GDP till January 2025…Listed here are the foundations:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Financial Evaluation (BEA) stories two consecutive quarters of unfavorable GDP development in america throughout the calendar yr 2024, based mostly on the seasonally adjusted annual price. This contains any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-This autumn. The dedication will probably be based mostly on probably the most just lately launched report by the BEA for every quarter.
If GDP knowledge for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised earlier than the discharge of the Advance Estimate for This autumn, the latest revision out there will probably be used for market decision as a substitute of the preliminary Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the discharge of the This autumn Advance Estimate is not going to be thought of for any quarters, together with This autumn itself.
The first decision supply for this market is the BEA’s official knowledge on the seasonally adjusted annualized p.c change in quarterly US actual GDP, as out there on their web site. A consensus of credible reporting may additionally be used if there’s ambiguity within the official knowledge.
