St. Louis and NY Feds have new nowcasts.
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Survey of Skilled Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9/9 (blue sq.) and of 9/4 (blue open sq.), NY Fed 9/13 (purple triangle-line), St. Louis Fed 9/13 nowcast (gentle inexperienced inverted triangle), 9/6 nowcast (inverted open triangle), Goldman Sachs (teal circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Nowcast ranges calculated iterating progress fee to reported 2017Q2 2nd launch GDP ranges. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, Philadelphia Fed for SPF, Atlanta Fed (9/9), NY Fed (9/6), St. Louis Fed (9/6), Goldman Sachs (9/6), and writer’s calculations.
Lewis, Mertens and Inventory/NY Fed WEI at 2.27%, Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sim WECI at -0.19 implying 1.81% if pattern is 2%.
