by Calculated Threat on 9/16/2024 01:06:00 PM
Again in June, I wrote: The Artwork of the Tender Touchdown
A couple of excerpts and an up to date graph …
The “Art of the Soft Landing” requires that the Fed cut back charges fast sufficient to maintain financial development optimistic, and gradual sufficient to not reignite inflation. My view is a delicate touchdown is achieved if development stays optimistic, inflation returns to focus on, and the yield curve flattens or reverts to regular (lengthy yields increased than quick yields).
The excellent news is development has stayed optimistic and inflation has moved nearer to the two% goal. Nonetheless, the yield curve remains to be inverted, and we’re not out of the woods but.
Right here is an up to date graph of 10-12 months Treasury Fixed Maturity Minus 2-12 months Treasury Fixed Maturity from FRED since 1976.
