UK shopper confidence falls sharply in September

Good morning. We now have updates beneath on the Center East disaster and the way markets reacted after the Federal Reserve’s bumper fee lower, whereas as we speak’s featured learn seems at Amazon’s hardline stance on in-person work.

However first, we flip to the UK, the place shopper confidence has fallen sharply as households anticipate what Sir Keir Starmer has warned can be a “painful” Finances.

The GfK shopper confidence index — a measure of how folks view their private funds and broader financial prospects — fell seven factors to minus 20, taking it again to January’s stage. The month-on-month fall was additionally the biggest since October final yr and comes regardless of the supply of cheaper house loans, rising actual wages and the retreat of inflation.

A major drop in shopper morale will reinforce considerations that the prime minister and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have been too downbeat concerning the economic system, with one analyst saying: “If they persist in this pessimistic tone, there’s a danger it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

And right here’s what I’m retaining tabs on as we speak and over the weekend:

• Financial knowledge: The UK has August public sector funds and retail gross sales figures as we speak, whereas the US publishes labour knowledge for a similar month.

• UK politics: Nigel Farage will communicate on the Reform UK convention in Birmingham after he advised the Monetary Occasions he would hand over his possession of the celebration. The Labour celebration’s convention begins in Liverpool on Sunday.

• Quad summit: US President Joe Biden hosts the leaders of India, Japan and Australia tomorrow in his house state of Delaware.

5 extra high tales

1. The S&P 500 closed at a file excessive yesterday as buyers guess the Federal Reserve’s jumbo half-point rate of interest lower would assist ship a mushy touchdown for the US economic system. The US good points capped a worldwide rally that additionally featured robust good points in European and Asian markets. Learn the complete markets replace.

2. Israeli forces struck targets alongside Lebanon’s southern border yesterday as Hizbollah’s chief mentioned Israel had crossed “all red lines” with this week’s mass detonations of communication gadgets. Hassan Nasrallah referred to as the assaults, which killed 32 folks and injured 1000’s, a “major security and military blow”.

3. Robert Jenrick has accused the UK Treasury of “gaslighting” the British public over the advantages of migration. In an interview with the FT, the frontrunner within the Tory management contest mentioned the “economic consensus” of the previous quarter century about mass migration was “fundamentally broken”.

4. Nike chief government John Donahoe will step down subsequent month in an abrupt management change on the world’s largest sportswear maker. The transfer punctuates a interval of dour monetary efficiency, together with a dramatic inventory sell-off after the firm lowered its steering in June. Right here’s who will exchange him.

5. John Paulson has brushed apart Wall Avenue worries that Donald Trump’s plans to boost tariffs will hurt the economic system, whereas calling for the US to “decouple” from China. In a shift from his earlier criticism of the previous president’s commerce coverage, the billionaire hedge fund supervisor advised the FT that tariffs may assist “level” the taking part in subject, saying: “We’re not in the period of free trade.”

How nicely did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

Information in-depth

This week, Amazon advised greater than 300,000 of its company workers that they have to return to the workplace 5 days per week from the beginning of 2025. By doing so, chief government Andy Jassy joins leaders together with Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and Elon Musk at Tesla in pushing for a full return to the workplace. It additionally places Amazon at odds with the softer method taken by most of its tech rivals.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Lord Waheed Alli: The tycoon has had a knack for backing winners, however his latest donations to Labour leaders have tarnished the federal government’s picture.

• Degrowth: Current opinions say the sphere, which requires radical financial change to save lots of the planet, affords few tenable coverage options, writes Soumaya Keynes.

• Submit Workplace: The corporate with one of many UK’s worst reputations must lower prices and supply higher rewards to turn out to be a good enterprise, writes John Gapper.

• Cricket: The Indian Premier League is remodeling the game, inspiring a flurry of fast-paced competitions geared toward untapped audiences. Can all of them survive?

Chart of the day

Expectations of fast rate of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve have been the primary driver of gold’s enormous rally this yr, based on analysts. Decrease borrowing prices improve the attraction of belongings with no yield, similar to bullion, and are additionally prone to weigh on the greenback, through which gold is denominated. However robust demand from jewellers and central banks have additionally helped buoy costs.

Take a break from the information

Because of a wave of nostalgia, demand for traditional soccer kits is hovering — and so are the costs. HTSI’s Alexander Tyndall seems on the rise of the soccer shirt, and why a Holland ’88 equipment may cost a little you £900.

Further contributions from Gordon Smith and Benjamin Wilhelm