The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of enterprise cycle chronologies within the Euro Space. The newest announcement is from April 17, 2024. What do more moderen indicators recommend (a partial survey)?
GDP and employment:
Industrial manufacturing and the unemployment price:
With employment rising by means of Q1 and unemployment declining from 2023 onward, it’s onerous to declare a recession in place — even taking into consideration the very fact all these knowledge might be revised over time.
Nowcasts point out close to zero progress in Q3. First the Banca d’Italia/CEPR eurocoin is barely constructive as of September launch (October 4), at 0.14% q/q (0.6% q/q AR).
Supply: BdI.
Nowcasts from a number of researchers initially/at present on the Federal Reserve Board (Cascaldi-Garcia et al., 2023)) present close to zero progress in Q3 and This autumn (as of 4 October).
Supply: Cascaldi-Garcia et al. (2023), accessed 10/7/2024.
Supply: Cascaldi-Garcia et al. (2023), accessed 10/7/2024.
This nowcast signifies -0.4% and 0% q/q AR in Q3 and This autumn respectively.
Visualization of a number of euro space macro indicators right here.
