Merchandise 1:
Supply: Antoni.
Merchandise 2:
Supply: Antoni.
Not that the info are “wrong” (I’m not a knowledge conspiracy theorist). Simply with out context, it’s fairly meaningless. Right here’s what a related graph may present (motivated by the Amount Idea):
Determine 1: M2 to GDP (blue, left scale), M2 to GDPNow (10/18) (blue +, left scale), PCE deflator (tan, proper scale), all in logs. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Federal Reserve, BEA by way of FRED, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: M2 to GDP (blue, left scale), M2 to GDPNow (10/18) (blue +, left scale), PCE deflator (tan, proper scale), all in logs, 1986Q1=0. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Federal Reserve, BEA by way of FRED, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
By the best way, attempt a cointegration take a look at on these sequence, for some illumination.
Some associated posts right here and right here.
