Republicans and lean Republican respondents actually, actually, actually don’t like financial situations proper now, switching “bigly” upon Trump’s election, contributing an outsize influence on the general College of Michigan shopper sentiment index. Democrats and lean Democratic respondents suppose issues are about the identical as mid-2016 (underneath Obama).
Determine 1: College of Michigan Shopper Sentiment relative to 2016M06 (daring black line), contribution from Democratic/lean Democratic (blue bar), from Unbiased (grey bar), and from Republican/lean Republican (crimson bar). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: College of Michigan, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
I’ve assumed weights of 0.33 to Democrats and Republicans, and 0.34 to Independents (not too far off precise weights). Discover that in current months, impartial disaffection is lowering, and so too is Republican — nonetheless, the latter is exhibiting a much less pronounced lower.
Additionally, as an fascinating apart, Republicans/lean Republicans seen the pandemic and speedy pandemic interval as higher than within the final half 12 months of the Obama administration.
