108.7 vs. 99.5 (Bloomberg consensus). Is constructive financial information percolating into surveys? From the Confidence Board immediately:
Determine 1: UMich Shopper Sentiment (blue, left scale), Shopper Sentiment adjusted per Cummings-Tedeschi (purple, left scale), and Convention Board Shopper Confidence (black, proper scale), Bloomberg consensus (gentle blue sq., proper scale). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: College of Michigan by way of FRED, Convention Board, NBER.
Considering the adjusted UMich Shopper Sentiment index (per Cummings and Tedeschi (2024) mentioned right here) and the Convention Board Shopper Confidence index, client assessments of the economic system are noticeably brighter than in earlier readings.
The change within the Confidence index is fairly massive (which is fascinating when taken along with the constructive revision to the September worth).
Determine 2: Change in Convention Board Shopper Confidence demeaned and normalized by commonplace deviation 2016-2024M10 (blue). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Convention Board, NBER and creator’s calculations.
The normalized change is 1.4 commonplace deviations – over a interval marked by substantial actions.
Lastly, with these readings, the hyperlink to information sentiment is re-established to some extent.
Determine 3: UMich Shopper Sentiment adjusted per Cummings-Tedeschi (purple), and Convention Board Shopper Confidence (black), and Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson/SF Fed Information Sentiment index (through 10/27) (inexperienced), all demeaned and normalized by commonplace deviation. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: College of Michigan by way of FRED, Cummings-Tedeschi, Convention Board, SF Fed, NBER and creator’s calculations.
