by Calculated Danger on 5/03/2024 09:04:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the April employment report was under expectations, and February and March payrolls had been revised down by 22,000 mixed. The employment inhabitants ratio decreased, and the unemployment fee elevated to three.9%.
Development employment elevated 9 thousand and is now 604 thousand above the pre-pandemic stage.
Manufacturing employment elevated 8 thousand and is now 181 thousand above the pre-pandemic stage.
Because the total participation fee is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (getting old inhabitants, youthful individuals staying at school) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years outdated.
The 25 to 54 years outdated participation fee elevated in April to 83.5% from 83.4% in March, and the 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio elevated to 80.8% from 80.7% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph reveals the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public staff from the Present Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage progress has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% YoY in April.
Half Time for Financial Causes
From the BLS report:
“The variety of individuals employed half time for financial causes, at 4.5 million, modified little
in April. These people, who would have most popular full-time employment, had been working half
time as a result of their hours had been lowered or they had been unable to search out full-time jobs.“
The variety of individuals working half time for financial causes elevated in April to 4.47 million from 4.31 million in March. That is barely above pre-pandemic ranges.
These employees are included within the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that elevated to 7.4% from 7.3% within the earlier month. That is down from the report excessive in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the bottom stage on report (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This collection began in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% stage in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph reveals the variety of employees unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
Based on the BLS, there are 1.250 million employees who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless need a job, up from 1.246 million the earlier month.
That is near pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
By April 2024, the employment report indicated constructive job progress for 40 consecutive months, placing the present streak in fifth place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939).
| Headline Jobs, High 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| 12 months Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 | 1979 | 45 |
| 5 | 20241 | 40 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the April employment report was under expectations, and February and March payrolls had been revised down by 22,000 mixed. The employment inhabitants ratio decreased, and the unemployment fee elevated to three.9%. A strong report.
