Heritage Basis EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats:
“Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang [sic] you,
@mises , for highlighting a latest paper @profstonge and I wrote that explains how inflation has been significantly underestimated – learn the article by @RonPaul right here:
https://t.co/cVroe5QwCT
I’ve written a paper on the Antoni-St. Onge thesis that utilizing the “right” deflators means GDP in 2024Q2 is beneath 2019Q2 ranges, however right here I wish to spotlight one truth – what their different GDP deflator entails.
Supply: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
Discover the massive orange space within the above graph, which Antoni and St. Onge attribute to their improved therapy of housing prices. I attempt to observe their argument, utilizing the product of home costs (Case Shiller nationwide home value index) and 30 12 months mortgage charges rather than the BEA’s part. I regulate actual consumption accordingly (the authors don’t point out adjustment to funding or authorities spending), and recalculate GDP (as proven within the paper). Updating the calculations with the newest home value and NIPA knowledge, I receive the next image of the implied deflators.
Determine 1: GDP deflator from BEA (orange), implied deflator changing BEA housing prices with product of home costs and mortgage charge, at 15% weight in consumption (mild blue), and at 30% weight (purple), and Antoni-St.Onge implied GDP deflator (crimson sq.), all relative to 2019Q1. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA, NBER, creator’s calculations.
In different phrases, I can not work out how Antoni and St. Onge calculated their different GDP, nor their different deflator.
