by Calculated Threat on 11/01/2024 09:07:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the October employment report was beneath expectations, and August and September payrolls have been revised down by 112,000 mixed. The participation price and the employment inhabitants ratio declined, and the unemployment price was unchanged at 4.1%.
Sometimes, retail corporations begin hiring for the vacation season in October, and actually improve hiring in November. Here’s a graph that reveals the historic internet retail jobs added for October, November and December by yr.
This graph actually reveals the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had elevated again near extra regular ranges. Be aware: I anticipate the long-term development might be down with increasingly web vacation buying.
Retailers employed 125 thousand staff Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) internet in October. This was decrease than final yr and suggests barely much less actual retail gross sales this vacation season as final yr.
This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a lack of 6.4 thousand retail jobs in October.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Outdated) Participation
Because the total participation price is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (growing older inhabitants, youthful folks staying at school) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years previous.
The 25 to 54 years previous participation price decreased in October to 83.5% from 83.8% in September.
The 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio decreased to 80.6% from 80.9% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph reveals the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public workers from the Present Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage progress has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in October.
From the BLS report:
“The variety of folks employed half time for financial causes was little modified at 4.6 million
in October. These people would have most popular full-time employment however have been working half
time as a result of their hours had been diminished or they have been unable to search out full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 million from 4.62 million in September. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.7% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph reveals the variety of staff unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In keeping with the BLS, there are 1.61 million staff who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless need a job, essentialy unchanged from 1.63 million the earlier month.
That is above pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
By way of October 2024, the employment report indicated constructive job progress for 46 consecutive months, placing the present streak in a tie for third place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939). It seems this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that can revise down job progress).
| Headline Jobs, Prime 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Yr Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 tie | 2007 | 46 |
| 3 tie | 20241 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the October employment report was beneath expectations, and August and September payrolls have been revised down by 112,000 mixed. The participation price and the employment inhabitants ratio declined, and the unemployment price was unchanged at 4.1%.
This report was impacted by strikes (particularly Boeing) and the hurricanes. This makes deciphering this report tough.
