What to anticipate as America votes

Immediately’s agenda: Ukraine fights North Korean troops; Palantir shares surge; Germany’s financial disaster; the US election in seven charts; and Israel’s plan to reshape the Center East

Good morning. Immediately, Individuals face a selection between starkly contrasting visions set forth by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a choice that might mark their nation, and the world, for many years. Right here’s what to anticipate as America votes.

What might resolve the election: The seven swing states are crucial. Each candidates have spent the closing hours of their marketing campaign looking for votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Monetary Occasions ballot tracker reveals a statistical tie between Harris and Trump in all of them.

The gender break up might additionally tip the scales. Polls present ladies have been flocking to Harris on the again of her vows to guard reproductive freedom. Traders reined in bets on a Trump win yesterday after a ballot confirmed her unexpectedly main in Republican-leaning Iowa — partly from a late surge in assist from feminine voters. However males have more and more turned to Trump, who has tapped male anxieties and grievances, in addition to conventional issues about immigration and the economic system.

What to look out for as outcomes are available: Count on a protracted night. Polls will begin closing at 6pm Japanese time (11pm GMT), with the final polls closing at midnight ET in Alaska. Information companies will mission outcomes for every state, not only for the presidency but in addition for races within the Home of Representatives and Senate. Solely 270 of the 538 electoral faculty votes are wanted to clinch the presidency, so not all states must be referred to as for a winner to emerge.

However we might not have a transparent end result for a number of days. Every of the swing states counts votes at totally different speeds, with Arizona, as an illustration, estimating it might take 10-13 days to report full outcomes. Razor-thin margins might result in recounts, and authorized challenges might drag out the method.

• A rustic on edge: Regulation enforcement companies are braced for civil unrest after a marketing campaign season characterised by “unprecedented” ranges of violent rhetoric.

• Company America: The result can have massive penalties for corporations spanning power, vehicles and prescribed drugs.

• Financial in-tray: Mohamed El-Erian particulars 5 essential financial areas the incoming president must sort out.

We’ll have real-time updates and evaluation from our reporters on the bottom because the outcomes unfold — try our dwell weblog on FT.com later right this moment. And be sure to’re signed up to obtain our US election e-newsletter, with editions each right this moment and tomorrow. Right here’s what else I’m protecting tabs on right this moment:

• EU: The bloc’s finance ministers meet in Brussels to debate assist for Ukraine, laws on worth added tax and the local weather.

• Outcomes: Asos, Related British Meals, Hugo Boss, Ørsted, Saudi Aramco and Thomson Reuters report.

5 extra prime tales

1. Ukrainian officers mentioned yesterday that their forces had fired at North Korean troopers for the primary time since their deployment by Russia to its western Kursk area. The clashes mark the primary direct intervention by a overseas military since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in 2022. We now have extra updates.

2. Shares in Palantir Applied sciences surged as a lot as 15 per cent in after-hours buying and selling yesterday as Peter Thiel’s information analytics group reported document quarterly earnings and raised its income forecast, citing excessive demand for its synthetic intelligence software program. Learn the complete story.

3. Taiwan’s hovering power costs and rising outages are affecting TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker. Following a sequence of worth will increase, the corporate now expects to pay extra for energy in its residence nation than wherever else. Right here’s how Taiwan’s shaky power transition is straining its business.

4. Demand for private safety for executives is rising as corporations are more and more focused by protesters, in line with the pinnacle of one of many world’s largest personal safety teams. Allied Common chief Steve Jones mentioned companies linked to Israel, defence and power have been extra prone to search extra safety.

5. Germany’s deputy chancellor has made a significant concession in talks on subsequent yr’s finances amid fears {that a} simmering row over the spending plan might convey down the nation’s fragile coalition authorities. Robert Habeck mentioned €7bn in authorities subsidies beforehand earmarked for a brand new Intel chip manufacturing facility might now be used to plug a gap within the finances, including now was “the worst possible time for the government to fail”.

The Large Learn

Over the previous three years, Europe’s largest economic system has slowly however steadily sunk into disaster. Germany has seen no significant quarterly actual GDP progress since late 2021, and annual GDP is poised to shrink for the second yr in a row, with the automobile, chemical substances and engineering sectors all in a droop. What is occurring proper now could be “unprecedented”, one analyst mentioned, and “of a completely different order of magnitude” from earlier crises.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Israel unbound: Buoyed by army beneficial properties, Benjamin Netanyahu now desires to dismantle Iran’s forces throughout the Center East and reshape the area.

• Chinese language property: After a greater than three-year slowdown, there are some indicators of life within the nation’s actual property market. However interviews in six cities present there are lingering doubts about its longer-term prospects.

• Argentina: Billions of {dollars} of judgments and claims in worldwide courts are piling strain on President Javier Milei’s cash-strapped authorities.

• Commerce coverage: Politicians attain simply for tariffs, however issues corresponding to local weather change and inequality have more practical however much less common options, writes economist Minouche Shafik.

Chart of the day

The frenzied contest between Trump and Harris, and Joe Biden earlier than her, has generated reams of knowledge, shedding gentle on US public opinion and voter attitudes on all the things from the economic system and overseas coverage to the candidates’ character. Listed below are seven charts which have outlined the 2024 presidential election.

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