Considered one of Polymarket’s greatest spenders practically doubled their pot on Donald Trump’s electoral victory this week.
Polymarket whale “Theo4” profited $21.9 million from betting on 4 Trump-focused markets on the Polygon-based prediction platform, together with Trump’s win over Kamala Harris.
The consumer rightly predicted that Trump would additionally win the favored vote, an final result that contradicted earlier outcomes. Whereas Trump gained the electoral faculty in 2016, he misplaced the favored vote to Hillary Clinton, and he additionally misplaced the favored vote to Joe Biden in 2020.
Theo4 first made headlines after a New York Occasions report instructed {that a} Polymarket whale is likely to be manipulating public notion and inflating Trump’s odds. The consumer, an expert French investor and dealer, refuted the declare, attributing their technique to non-public bias and a data-driven strategy.
Theo4 argued that nationwide polls had been skewed in favor of Harris and believed that many underestimated the Trump vote.
Polymarket’s largest election contract was additionally Theo4’s greatest funding. The market titled “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” amassed over $3 billion in quantity, with the French consumer spending about $9 million on shares, which resolved on Nov. 6.
Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi had been seemingly vindicated when Trump was introduced as president-elect of america.
These platforms, which permit customers to guess on occasion outcomes, surged in recognition because the election approached earlier this 12 months. Nonetheless, they confronted criticism from skeptics and regulators for allegedly selling election playing.
Rumors of political bias additionally floated, with legacy media channels claiming prediction platforms had been extremely partisan. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan dismissed the claims as unfounded, defending his firm as nothing greater than an information supply.
Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly referred to as the election earlier than anything. The worldwide reality machine is right here, powered by the individuals.
Shayne Coplan on X
