Prediction markets had a breakout second throughout the presidential election, after they proved to be extra correct than most opinion polls.
So with numerous cryptocurrencies hovering since Donald Trump gained the election, perhaps prediction markets can precisely reply the query, “How high will Bitcoin go?”
On the crypto-based Polymarket, the place the so-called French whale netted a large post-election windfall, bettors have numerous choices for Bitcoin, which is at the moment buying and selling at about $91,000.
For a contract on what value Bitcoin will hit in November, the percentages are 72% that it’s going to attain $95,000. The value with the following highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin will likely be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 exhibits 60% odds, whereas one more contract asking if Bitcoin will attain $100,000 in November solely has a 42% likelihood.
On the prediction market Kalshi, a contract that asks how excessive Bitcoin will get earlier than 2026 exhibits 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.
If prediction markets aren’t your factor, and you like a forecast from a extra typical Wall Avenue analyst, there’s Fundstrat World Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.
Among the many forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his inventory market name in 2023 turned out to be probably the most correct.
As for Bitcoin, he mentioned in March that it may hit $150,000 by year-end. Whereas that appears much less possible now with only a month and a half left within the yr, Lee informed CNBC final week that “six figures” continues to be attainable earlier than the top of the yr with extra good points in 2025 in 2026.
“I think now because post-halving, Bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant, and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there’s a lot of upside from here,” he defined.
Bitcoin has already soared 32% to this point in November alone and has greater than doubled this yr. To get to $100,000, it must climb one other 10%.
However there are indicators that the post-election rally is stalling because the inventory market notched a shedding week. Nonetheless, key elements of the “Trump trade” are driving excessive, like Tesla inventory, Treasury yields, and the greenback.
In the meantime, Quinn Thompson, the founding father of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, informed Fortune this previous week that he’s optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone quickly.
“I feel good that we hit it by year-end,” he mentioned. “Very possible by end of month, but we’ll see.”
