One of many promised benefits of leaving the EU was that it might permit Britain to forge its personal path on this planet. With the re-election of Donald Trump, charting an unbiased route ahead turned extra difficult.
Brexit has already left the UK adrift between American and EU commerce and regulatory regimes — reluctant to tack too far by hook or by crook. Now the federal government is bracing itself for stark strategic selections on pivotal points starting from carbon pricing and AI regulation to commerce tariffs when the president-elect enters the Oval Workplace in January.
Ministers and officers wonder if Trump’s return may power the UK to decide — both to cleave to Washington or to veer in direction of Brussels — or whether or not Britain can nonetheless try to chart a center path on a spread of coverage flashpoints.
Lord Peter Mandelson, the previous Labour cupboard minister and EU commerce commissioner — and a number one candidate to change into the subsequent UK ambassador to Washington — has mentioned that the UK should look to “have our cake and eat it” when triangulating with Trump. That can imply searching for aspect offers with Washington in areas like digital commerce and defence whereas persevering with Labour’s present “reset” with commerce and safety ties in Europe.
Others are much less optimistic. Strolling a line between being each pro-European and Atlanticist will probably be tough when it comes right down to issues of substance, warns Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform in London.
“It seems clear that the UK government will look to walk a tightrope with the Americans; collaborating with the US on defence and lining up with the EU on trade and climate issues,” he says.
However, he provides, “the danger is we don’t keep anyone happy: we do just enough with the US to create doubts in European minds that we’re not trustworthy.”
Different commerce specialists and longtime Brussels watchers agree that the results of the US election has the potential to considerably complicate the UK prime minister’s efforts to reset relations with Brussels on various commerce and commerce points.
Trump will probably be returning to the White Home within the new 12 months simply because the British authorities is searching for to finalise its pitch to the EU on easy methods to deepen ties on commerce, vitality co-operation and safety issues forward of a deliberate EU-UK summit within the early spring.
“The big question is whether any kind of tariff exemptions or deal with the Trump administration requires a radically different approach to either regulation or trade — if the inconsistencies with the EU became too big, then it would make it difficult to get closer to the EU,” says Olivia O’Sullivan, director of the UK within the World programme at think-tank Chatham Home.
It’s not nearly commerce or defence: the UK may additionally discover itself caught between Europe and the US over easy methods to take care of China. The federal government may even should navigate advanced home political arguments about its strategy that can in all probability revive most of the points across the Brexit referendum.
Consultants warning that there are downsides to pivoting in both route — but in addition in failing to choose in any respect.
As Kim Darroch, former UK ambassador to the US, warns: “If you choose to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc and drift gently around in the Atlantic — and are not sure whether you want to join an American regulatory regime for trade or the EU one — it’s going to leave you looking very isolated.”
The success or failure of London’s makes an attempt to string the needle with Washington will rely largely on how arduous Trump’s new administration pushes for Starmer’s authorities to decide on between twin commerce regimes, based on commerce specialists.
John Alty, the previous director-general of commerce coverage on the UK Division for Worldwide Commerce over the last Trump presidency, says that Britain’s present commerce settlement with the EU in idea left the nation free to do side-deals with the US with out affecting UK-EU commerce.
The UK authorities can be trying to put collectively a package deal of “common interests” primarily based round digital commerce and supply-chain resilience in important minerals. On the identical time, London will probably be arguing to Washington that imposing economically damaging tariffs is self-defeating when it is usually demanding Europe finds extra money to pay for its personal for defence.
US calls for may embrace some carve-out for US exporters from a UK carbon border tax on imported items which is because of be launched in 2027, or politically extra contentious “asks”, corresponding to requesting that the UK admit US meals merchandise corresponding to chlorine-washed rooster or hormone-raised beef as a part of a proposal for a full US-UK free commerce settlement.
“That would obviously be very difficult and it would also torpedo the idea of a veterinary agreement with the EU, which the Labour government is currently seeking, and therefore muddy the atmosphere with Brussels,” Alty provides.
Among the many issues of some commerce specialists is how the UK will place itself between the US and the EU as they take basically divergent approaches to regulation in areas corresponding to local weather, carbon taxes and supply-chain monitoring. For that reason, Marco Forgione, director-general on the Chartered Institute of Export & Worldwide Commerce, believes it’s “untenable” for the UK to have the perfect of each worlds.
Whereas the US inner market is trying to sweep away regulatory necessities, the EU is taking a special view on ESG [environmental, social and governance], web zero, and supply-chain traceability, with all of the compliance burdens that go along with that, Forgione says.
“It leaves the UK highly exposed: if the UK is uncertain of where it sits between the regulated compliance environment in the EU and the deregulated sector in the US, then why sit in London?” he asks. “These are global companies, they don’t have to be here.”
The image is difficult additional by opposing approaches to China. Trump’s preoccupation with Beijing is evident: he has threatened to ignite a full-blown commerce struggle, together with 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese language imports, and has appointed a number of China hawks to his cupboard.
In contrast, the Labour administration in Britain is stepping up diplomatic engagement with Beijing. This week Starmer turned the primary UK prime minister to meet Chinese language President Xi Jinping in six years. On the sidelines of a G20 summit in Rio, Starmer proposed “deepening the partnership bilaterally on trade and investment, health, education and other areas of mutual interest”, based on No 10, and confirmed Chancellor Rachel Reeves will go to Beijing in 2025.
Nonetheless, whereas alive to Britain and China’s shared industrial pursuits, Labour has retained the Conservatives’ guarded strategy in opposition to sharing delicate applied sciences of the long run, corresponding to AI. The UK mirrored the Biden administration in making a “small yard with a high fence” on items and mental property with potential navy purposes, making use of commerce and switch restrictions to China.
The danger is that Trump will go additional — and count on the UK to observe go well with. “The problem for Britain will be if the Trump administration starts expanding the yard and demanding more and more restrictions and controls, and vetoes the transfer of more goods to China which we do not regard as sensitive or dual use, but the result of American protectionism. That will make the UK and the EU very jumpy,” warns one senior Labour parliamentarian.
Some occasion figures imagine the federal government ought to search to barter a stronger financial safety partnership between London and Washington, which takes a harder line on China, with exemptions from Trump’s threatened tariffs on all imports to the US. This is able to search to construct on Britain’s deep defence and safety relationship with the US.
Liam Byrne, Labour chair of the Commons enterprise and commerce committee, has proposed that the UK supply to tighten up its inward funding screening programme and introduce extra sturdy export controls on expertise transfers to Beijing in return for commerce concessions.
However there may be scepticism in different quarters in regards to the plausibility of such a plan. Lord Peter Ricketts, former UK nationwide safety adviser, warns that “security and trade are difficult to trade off against each other”, including: “I’m not sure it’s a good idea to try.”
A US “shopping list” can be more likely to embrace a dialogue across the UK imposing tariffs on Chinese language electrical automobiles. Not like the EU and the US, the UK has thus far declined to impose tariffs on Chinese language EV imports.
That hypothetically leaves room for the UK to impose some tariffs with out inflicting undue home disruption within the type of increased costs. Nevertheless it dangers souring relations with Beijing and inflicting authorized complications for London, based on Peter Hill, the previous UK civil servant who served as chief government of COP26 and is now visiting professor on the LSE’s Grantham Analysis Institute on local weather change.
“It’s not as easy as simply ‘imposing tariffs’ at the behest of Washington. There is a legal process to be followed — an injured party needs to register a complaint, to begin with — and the UK, like the EU, remains committed to the law,” he says.
Nevertheless, Brussels’ powerful measures on Chinese language EVs are at odds with its extra open strategy to buying and selling with Beijing normally. “The EU has put tariffs on EVs, but that’s about trying to squeeze investment from China in a different direction — it’s not, unlike the US, trying to exclude it,” says Rana Mitter, professor in US-Asia relations at Harvard Kennedy Faculty.
Furthermore, he identified that whereas the US could shift away from inexperienced vitality beneath Trump, the EU and the UK have each set out their plans to lean into the transition. “That provides a dilemma for the UK on trade. The UK might have to look more to the EU than the US, because its trajectory is closer to what the current UK government wants,” Mitter provides.
Home politics is additionally pulling Starmer in several instructions. A part of the problem for Britain in coping with the Trump administration is that pro-Brexit cheerleaders led by Reform UK chief Nigel Farage could exploit their shut hyperlinks to the president-elect to be able to drive a wedge between Britain and Europe.
Farage is adamant that “there are advantages to being an intermediary, a broker in the middle”. He says a bilateral sectoral take care of the US on monetary companies can be an “easy win” and “achievable in a relatively short time”, arguing that each London and New York are aligned within the obstacles they wish to scrap.
Scathing about potential repercussions from Brussels, he provides: “If we do a deal with the US, will the EU put sanctions on us? I doubt it. They might resent our privileged status, but so what?” Citing the quicker progress the US financial system has loved over the EU’s lately, he says: “Where is the future? We have to take a view.”
All through the 2024 UK election marketing campaign Farage accused the Conservatives of “failing” to ship Brexit by not attaining a clear sufficient break with Brussels — one thing {that a} hard-bargaining Trump administration may assist to realize.
By the identical token, pro-EU advocates within the UK say that the fact of negotiating with Trump would lastly make the case for bolder re-engagement with the EU.
Thus far, the Starmer authorities has restricted the extent of any reset with Brussels, notably on commerce issues, ruling out rejoining the EU single market and customs union or accepting any type of free motion of individuals, together with even a mobility deal for younger folks.
Mike Galsworthy, the chair of the European Motion UK, which campaigns for a more in-depth relationship with the EU, says that the “messy tug-of-love between the US and EU” would offer a political pivot-point within the dialogue round Europe.
He predicts that whereas Farage, Trump, the pro-Brexit UK tabloids and the US rightwing influencers will attempt “to haul the UK into Trump’s orbit”, each the mainstream Labour occasion and different opposition events will reject each Trump’s values and economics.
“Their instinct will be to turn up the heat on the government . . . demanding the UK urgently rebuild its relationship with Europe — on defence, on security, on mobility and standards,” he says.
The extent of political stress on the British authorities will partly depend upon the precise influence of Trumponomics on the financial system.
There are some causes to imagine it might but be lower than feared. The IMF has tried to quantify the harm {that a} tit-for-tat commerce struggle involving tariffs imposed by the US, Europe and China would trigger. It discovered widespread levies, tax breaks, much less migration and better borrowing prices may hit international output by 0.8 per cent in 2025 and one other 1.3 per cent in 2026.
Whereas the UK would undoubtedly really feel the consequences of such a progress setback, it might show to be much less uncovered to Trump’s insurance policies than a few of its different buying and selling companions.
First, the UK’s small commerce surplus with the US (or modest deficit, relying on who’s compiling the numbers) means the UK just isn’t considered as a serious offender with regards to Trump’s ire, which is more likely to be centered on international locations which have giant commerce surpluses with the US corresponding to China and Germany.
If there’s a blanket tariff on all international locations, the UK may get caught within the line of fireside, says Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics, a analysis enterprise, however is unlikely to be on the high of Trump’s “naughty list”.
“We send a lot of services to the US, and the feeling here is that they are not going to be subject to any tariffs,” he provides.
Within the items sector, some UK industries could possibly be badly affected, particularly prescription drugs and automotive, that are main exporters to the US.
Analysts at Oxford Economics consultancy calculate {that a} “full-blown Trump” state of affairs by which across-the-board tariff will increase are imposed, with the UK retaliating, would have comparatively modest results on UK progress.
“The only way it becomes a really big problem is if we see a much bigger global trade war,” says Andrew Goodwin of Oxford Economics.
Nonetheless, any financial hit can be unwelcome at a time when the UK progress backdrop is already wanting acutely difficult for Reeves, the chancellor.
As Jonathan Reynolds, the enterprise secretary, conceded this week, Trump’s election portended a “very significant moment for global trade”, warning {that a} full-blown commerce struggle between China and the west would depart an open buying and selling nation just like the UK extra deeply uncovered than the US.
“We’ll be seeking what’s in the national interest — and the fact we have an independent trade policy makes it an explicitly UK decision,” he mentioned. “But fundamentally the question will have to be: what is the hard-headed assessment of the best interests of the UK?”
