Egg costs are rising as soon as extra as a lingering outbreak of fowl flu coincides with the excessive demand of the vacation baking season.
However costs are nonetheless removed from the latest peak they reached virtually two years in the past. And the American Egg Board, a commerce group, says egg shortages at grocery shops have been remoted and momentary to date.
“Those are being rapidly corrected, sometimes within a day,” mentioned Emily Metz, the Egg Board’s president and chief government officer.
The typical value for a dozen eggs in U.S. cities was $3.37 in October, in line with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was down barely from September, and down considerably from January 2023, when the typical value soared to $4.82. But it surely was up 63% from October 2023, when a dozen eggs value a mean of $2.07.
Metz mentioned the egg business sees its highest demand in November and December.
“You can’t have your holiday baking, your pumpkin pie, your stuffing, without eggs,” she mentioned.
Avian influenza is the primary motive for the upper costs. The present fowl flu outbreak that started in February 2022 has led to the slaughter of greater than 111 million birds, largely egg-laying chickens. Anytime the virus is discovered, each fowl on a farm is killed to restrict the unfold of the illness.
Greater than 6 million birds have been slaughtered simply this month due to fowl flu. They have been a comparatively small a part of the overall U.S. egg-laying flock of 377 million chickens. Nonetheless, the flock is down about 3% over the previous yr, contributing to a 4% drop in egg manufacturing, in line with the U.S. Division of Agriculture.
The most recent wave of fowl flu is scrambling provides of cage-free eggs as a result of California has been among the many hardest hit states. California, Nevada, Washington and Oregon all require eggs offered of their states to be cage-free.
“We’re having to move eggs from other areas of the country that are producing cage-free to cover that low supply in those states, because those states only allow for cage-free eggs to be sold,” Metz mentioned.
Cage-free necessities are set to enter impact in Arizona, Colorado and Michigan subsequent yr and in Rhode Island and Utah in 2030.
Demand for such specialty eggs might also be contributing to avian flu, which is unfold via the droppings of untamed birds as they migrate previous farms. Permitting chickens to roam extra freely places them at larger danger, mentioned Chad Hart, a professor and agricultural economist at Iowa State College.
“It’s really hard to control that interaction between domesticated birds and wild birds,” Hart mentioned. “Some of those vectors have been opened up because we’re asking the egg industry to produce in ways that we didn’t ask them to before.”
Metz mentioned local weather change and excessive climate are additionally blowing some wild birds off target.
“We have birds that have been displaced by hurricanes, by wildfires, and those birds are now circulating in areas that they otherwise might not circulate or at times of the year that they otherwise may not be circulating,” she mentioned. “And those are all new variables that our farmers are having to deal with.”
Hart mentioned the egg business is attempting to rebuild the flock, however that can also restrict provides, since farmers have to carry again some eggs to hatch into new chickens.
Nonetheless, there’s some excellent news on U.S. poultry farms. The worth of rooster feed — which represents 70% of a farmer’s prices — has fallen considerably after doubling between 2020 and 2022, Hart mentioned.
