EPU via yesterday, and VIX as of 2pm immediately:
Determine 1: EPU (blue, left scale) and seven day centered shifting common (pink, left scale), and VIX (inexperienced, proper scale). 1/6 commentary for VIX is as of 2pm ET. Supply: policyuncertainty.com and CBOE through FRED.
Why the soar in EPU? Possibly Trump’s backtracking on common tariffs? Then backtracking on that backtracking will presumably maintain EPU up for the 1/6/2025 commentary…
And right here’s the Baker, Bloom and Davis categorical EPU via December:
Determine 2: Commerce Coverage Uncertainty (blue). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: policyuncertainty.com, and NBER.
Welcome to 2025.
