January Convention Board confidence index is available in at 104.1 vs. 105.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from 109.5 in December. A 5.4 level decline is about 1 normal deviation (2021M07-2024M12). Extra apparently, expectations (versus present state of affairs) can be down.
Supply: Convention Board.
Along with the decline recorded for the Confidence Board’s measure, expectations have additionally deteriorated for the College of Michigan Survey of Shoppers, in addition to the Gallup ballot.
Determine 1: Univ. of Michigan expectations (blue), Gallup confidence in future (crimson), each standardized (demeaned, divided by normal deviation over 1995-2024 interval). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Michigan through FRED, Gallup, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
General sentiment/confidence indices have declined for U.Michigan, Convention Board, and Gallup sequence.
Determine 2: Univ. of Michigan expectations (blue), Convention Board confidence, expectations (tan), Gallup confidence in future (crimson), each standardized (demeaned, divided by normal deviation over 1995-2024 interval). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Michigan through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
For completeness, I additionally embrace Wells Fargo’s “Animal Spirits Index”, which mixes the SP500, 10yr-3mo time period unfold, EPU, VIX, and Convention Board confidence index.
Supply: Wells Fargo, 28 Jan 2025.
Wells Fargo feedback, concerning the boldness part:
Draw back dangers to the Shopper Confidence Index (and thus the ASI) in 2025 stay. In December, mentions of tariffs elevated in client responses, with 46% of customers anticipating tariffs to boost the price of residing within the quick time period. Increased tariffs, if imposed, would impart a modest stagflationary shock to the economic system, leading to greater costs and slower financial progress. Increased costs would impart a adverse shock to actual earnings progress, thereby weighing on progress in actual client spending, which might soften buying energy and confidence.
So, even earlier than the imposition of tariffs, their results are being felt.
