April and Might inflation was overpredicted by year-ahead consumer-based surveys.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Customers (crimson), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (gentle inexperienced), unit prices (chartreuse), all in %. Might 2024 Michigan statement is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan through FRED and, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Skilled Forecasters, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed and NBER.
The SPF 12 months forward for Might is at 2.51%, barely above the two.45% that I estimate is in step with a 2% PCE deflator inflation. Curiously, with median unit price progress again at roughly April 2018 ranges, there’s little proof of a wage-price spiral.
