Against The Inevitability Of Bitcoin

Bitcoiners are optimists.

When Satoshi Nakamoto wrote and released the first code that began the Bitcoin experiment, it was an inherently optimistic act in response to the economic and monetary turbulence referenced in the genesis block.

Satoshi was a cypherpunk, a group which envisioned shaping a better future through deliberate technological innovation, particularly in regards to software.

Cypherpunks write code.

By leveraging software, a single individual could have an outsized impact on the world and future societal outcomes. Unfortunately, however, this optimism has more recently been warped beyond recognition and become detached from the focus on actual progressive technical development.

I mean to highlight and push back on this attitude of inevitability, which stands in stark contrast to Bitcoin’s original practical optimism. Two prominent examples come to mind: PlanB’s “stock-to-flow” (S2F) model and Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy and rhetoric.

The Lure Of Inevitability

In PlanB’s infamous price projection model S2F, the path to bitcoin’s dominance is charted, assured and deterministic. Sure, the author never claims its absolute precision. After all, all intellectually honest parties will agree volatility is unavoidable in bootstrapping a new monetary system from zero. But the popular attitude around S2F’ and all similar models is clear:

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