Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Right here’s an image of instantaneous core measures.
Determine 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), PPI core (pink), and PCE core (inexperienced), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Supply: BLS, BEA, Cleveland Fed, and writer’s calculations.
It’s tempting to conclude this motion will feed into the CPI inflation, July figures to be launched tomorrow, however this isn’t clearly the case. See this submit for dialogue of formal econometric analyses of whether or not PPI leads CPI.
Addendum, 10am PT:
Right here’s an image from Goldman Sachs Financial Analysis at the moment:
