All present good points since January 2023, save the CPS based mostly.
Determine 1: Cumulative change in NFP employment in line with CES (daring black), implied preliminary benchmark (blue), early benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate (gentle blue sq.), CPS adjusted to NFP idea (teal), QCEW complete coated, nsa (darkish purple), and QCEW seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (in logs) (salmon), all in 000’s. Supply: BLS through FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Be aware that the CPS collection adjusted to NFP will probably be downwardly biased if the general CPS collection is downwardly biased. That is seemingly the case, as mentioned right here.
so… not but time to panic about recession, no less than by NFP employment figures.
