Primarily based on ADP-Stanford Digital Financial system Lab collection for October. Determine 1: Personal nonfarm payroll employment (daring black), nowcast…
GDP underneath Bloomberg consensus of three.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it). ADP non-public NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus…
Non-public nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (large time): 223K vs 125K consensus (complete NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus).…
My guess for personal NFP: Determine 1: Non-public NFP (daring black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (grey), Bloomberg…
The puzzle stays: regardless of an under-consensus 99K addition to non-public ADP-Stanford NFP (far under consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change…
All present good points since January 2023, save the CPS based mostly. Determine 1: Cumulative change in NFP employment in…
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